Tierney and Simmons bet

In a redux of Julian Simon's Bet With Paul Ehrlich about metal prices, John Tierney and Matthew Simmons have bet each other about whether the price of a barrel of oil will be more or less than $200 in the year 2010: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/23/opinion/23tierney.html I've been encountering people on-line who claim that Simmons is shooting fish in a barrel, and wish they could be a part of it, too. When I offer to take them up on it, they suddenly stop. (Incidentally, if anyone wants to do a $10,000 to $25,000 version of the bet, drop me a line and I'll pay your legal fees.)